Currency Forecast

Daily Forecast ( Date: 18-06-2024)

Indian Rupee set to open slightly higher at around 83.50 compared to its previous close of 83.55 on Friday. Markets will closely watched US retail sales data later today to assess the Fed rate path. Key day range in the USDINR pair likely to be observed between 83.40 to 83.55.

Weekly Forecast (18.06.24 - 21.06.24 )

Weekly :

The Indian rupee is expected to maintain it’s narrow trading range. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention is likely to prevent significant losses, despite pressure on Asian currencies.

On Friday, the rupee closed at 83.5550 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.2% for the week and just shy of its record low of 83.5750 set in April.

Last week, the dollar index rose while most Asian currencies declined. Market participants think that regular interventions by the RBI across various market segments helped keep the rupee above its lifetime low.

We can anticipate the rupee to fluctuate between 83.25 and 83.60 this week.

Attention this week will be on remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers as markets assess their hawkish interest rate projections, despite recent data indicating cooling inflation in the U.S.

Key data to watch U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday and the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday.

Monthly Forecast (Jun 2024)

In May, the Indian Rupee (INR) closed at 83.46 to the dollar despite consistent central bank interventions, which helped it reach a high of 83.03. Ongoing demand from oil importers continued to exert pressure on the rupee.

June started on a positive note for the rupee, with early trading pushing the INR to 82.95 against the USD, up 0.5% from its previous close of 83.4625, marking its highest level since March 19. While interbank dollar sales initially boosted the rupee, subsequent dollar purchases by importers limited these gains.

Exit polls have projected that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance is likely to secure a third term, boosting investor confidence. However, investors remain cautious, waiting for the official election results on June 4 due to the often unreliable nature of exit polls.

Key events to watch include the upcoming RBI policy meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged at 6.50%, with no cuts anticipated before December. This could provide some support for the rupee.

Additionally, the June FOMC guidance, along with U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, will significantly influence USDINR movements.

The anticipated monthly trading range for USDINR is between 82.70 and 83.50 in the month of June.

Disclaimer:

Currency forecasts are based on technical and fundamental analysis and taken from some trusted sources. IBH UAE does not make its on forecasts. Forecasts may change frequently based on present facts and future events and may differ from actual prices. One should not fully rely on the above forecasts while making any financial decision. IBH UAE takes no responsibility on making any financial decisions based on the above forecasts.